Thursday, March 21, 2013

Anti-Gun Incentives May Not Be What You Expect

In light of recent events, the gun control debate has re-arisen and this has led to a new discussion about the facts of gun control as it relates to gun-related violence.  We see talking heads go back and forth on gun violence and whether or not a ban would prevent future mass shootings in public places.  While these events have spurred passionate cries on either side of the debate it is interesting to think about the economics of the gun control propositions.  For one, gun sales have skyrocketed in the past few years for, what some may call, an apocalyptic fear of a ban on guns in the near future.  This is, of course, understandable.  The President has proposed a ban on assault weapons such as AK-47s as well as decreasing the amount of ammo the gun may hold. 

These proposals adhere to a certain spectrum of cries within the debate.  However, since the public has heard about the proposals it has seemed to spur the opposite desired effect.  As mentioned earlier, gun sales have sky-rocketed.  We see in states like Texas where on-campus concealed carry laws are part of proposed legislation.  Gun businesses have stocked up inventories.  Demand is exponentially higher.  All of these consequences are not intended as part of the proposals (obviously).  However, it wasn't necessarily just the recent proposals by the President that has spurred this boom in the gun industry.  Gun sales have risen over the past year or two!  Some argue that it's because of the anti-gun politicians in control so demand is higher in anticipation of future difficulty.  I may contend that it's an economy in decline.  Given the sluggish "growth" from 2011-2013 perhaps people are settling on a less than par economy for years to come.  A less than par economy tends to spur an increase in criminal activity.  That doesn't mean that criminals are the ones purchasing the guns!  No, they couldn't afford them or pass a background check for that matter.  Rather it's the law abiding citizens purchasing more guns because when people don't have jobs they resort to lesser alternatives.  Hence the correlation between poor areas and high crime rates. 

Ironically, the anti-gun theme has seen the opposite effect and in a round about way-as seems to be the case in almost any economic explanation-it has actually helped a sector of the economy it's aimed to harm.  And hey at least there is some "growth".